I mean yeah, I can see the similarities. However we know pretty much every single toy coming out next year and Prime universe Cliffjumper is not one of them. However that would most likely be a mainline release to keep the CJ trademark going and to keep the character on shelves.
As for now though, this will be Lockdown. Specifically the "evergreen" design. We know we're getting Lockdown next year so it's easy. Yes there are similarities between Axlegrease and Lockdown but they don't need to use that base mold again. It's already on its third use and one of those shouldn't exist as it is.
To me it was a dead giveaway when I seen the weapons. The side arm ports as well as that oversized handcuffs thing. It reminded me of Lockdown immediately. Especially when I stopped focusing on that and looked at the figure as a whole.
The slots on the hood are also very out of place if something doesn't actually plug into them at some point.
I just went though a bit of the video. That transformation is painfully Lockdown. Those legs if retooled every so slightly will give Lockdown his odd legs from his RotF toy. This is a Lockdown toy repurposed for Chase instead of the other way around.