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Will the movie make prices skyrocket?


Ultra-Mattus

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I've been wondering how the movie will affect prices of vintage G1 pieces. I remember when Lord of the Rings was popular, the ToyBiz figures were selling for a great deal more than they are now. I assume that prices for vintage figs will go high for a while, but do you expect them to stay high, or will they fall again after some time has passed?

 

Already, figures on Ebay of MIB Omega Supreme, Prime, Shockwave, Trypticon are going for like twice of what they have been over the past 5 years or so (that's how long I've been doing the Ebay thing). I'm a huge fan of the Classics lines and both the Hasbro and Takara reissues, but I would like to put together a nice vintage collection. If I wait long enough, will they come back down in price? I don't mind spending $200-300 for a nice Prime or Omega, but $400-500 seems to be too much, unless the box is in case fresh condition, which they rarely are.

 

Incidentally, I'm in an economics class right now, but we just haven't gone over secondary markets yet! :tflaugh

 

Thanks, and I look forward to hearing your thoughts.

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Well, you're possibly going to be SOL. The late stuff (post '87) has been rising steadily for the last three years because all of the older vintage collectors finished the '84-86 stuff ages ago. The late stuff, is a lot rarer but due to aesthetics is shunned by your average collector. I don't think the late stuff will drop any time soon. The early stuff however is going to be what goes up during and after the movie, because that is what people remember and like. This means that both halves are high. I don't think this will much affect US collectors of foreign exclusives. Sure you'll get the random asshat who puts a dumb BIN and claims the movie, but the auctions on those won't go up.

 

The only hope I see for the early stuff collector (and even the late stuff completist) is that people will be coming out of the woodworks to unload their TF crap, so they could flood the market.

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Yeah, I was afraid that would be the case. Although, it never occurred to me that more people may dig out their old toys and try to take advantage of the movie hype.

 

I don't mind buying loose, complete figures. But I would like to have nice MIB pieces for the larger pieces like Jetfire, Omega Supreme, Shockwave, Trypticon, Soundwave, and the commanders. Guess I'll just have to stop eating and save my cash! :-)

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I agree with Elrod - the early year figures, primarily the 1984-86 figures will go up, but figures from 1987 onwards won't fluctuate much.

 

And that suits me fine as most of the G1 figures I'm currently after are from the later years. ;)

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I've been wondering how the movie will affect prices of vintage G1 pieces. I remember when Lord of the Rings was popular, the ToyBiz figures were selling for a great deal more than they are now. I assume that prices for vintage figs will go high for a while, but do you expect them to stay high, or will they fall again after some time has passed?

 

 

I expect them to spike in value and stay there. As new fans grow into the fandom (and some old fans come back), more vintage toys will be bought up and the supply of good conditioned pieces will dwindle even further.

 

Look at the rebirth of Star Wars during the 90's. Vintage toys boomed in value and never looked back. Transformers is a brand with that kind of staying power.

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I think the prices will spike for a few months, but afterwards will start to drop again. What's gonna happen is that we're gonna have a lot of bandwagon jumpers who will drive G1 toy prices up for a few months, but after they fizzle out, prices will decline again.

 

Revisiting your Star Wars analogy, when Episode I first came out in theatres, Darth Maul became very hard to find because everyone was scalping this figure like crazy. A lot of people complained that Hasbro's supply of Darth Mauls wasn't meeting the demand. So a few months later, Hasbro went and did a second production run of Darth Mauls and released it into the market. Unfortunately by this time, demand had dropped and Darth Mauls shelf-warmed, driving the value of the Darth Mauls down - till this day it's still not a very expensive toy.

 

So yeah, I expect G1 demand to look like this:

post-6770-1177577953_thumb.jpg

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That's why I miss the 90s... really cheap 2nd hand G1 market. I bought my original Soundwave at a flea market 10 years ago for just five bucks! And I bought Rumble with Trailbreaker for about AU$25... now it costs at least US$40 just to get Rumble on his own! Crazy!

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I think the prices will spike for a few months, but afterwards will start to drop again. What's gonna happen is that we're gonna have a lot of bandwagon jumpers who will drive G1 toy prices up for a few months, but after they fizzle out, prices will decline again.

 

Revisiting your Star Wars analogy, when Episode I first came out in theatres, Darth Maul became very hard to find because everyone was scalping this figure like crazy. A lot of people complained that Hasbro's supply of Darth Mauls wasn't meeting the demand. So a few months later, Hasbro went and did a second production run of Darth Mauls and released it into the market. Unfortunately by this time, demand had dropped and Darth Mauls shelf-warmed, driving the value of the Darth Mauls down - till this day it's still not a very expensive toy.

 

So yeah, I expect G1 demand to look like this:

 

Only problem with the chart in relation to printing off more darth mauls's is that Hasbro isn't reprinting any G1 characters, and anyone who says "I've heard rumblings we'll be getting a new reissue line" is speaking on conjecture. They can't print any Mirages or Sunstreakers or Jetfires or Shockwaves, any of the omnibots, constructicons, dinobots, etc. Even if they could they probably wouldn't-- we would have seen shots by now and plus Hasbro's goal is to push the movie line, not a toyline they imported 20 years ago.

 

I'm actually a little pissed about it-- for quite a while now I've wanted to complete my G1, at least complete 84-85 and now that I'm making a fair amount more money, I feel like I have to buy as much as I can before the movie comes out. You can see prices are already above where they were a year ago and now I'm feeling it.

 

It would be great if we could have more "Darth Mauls" printed, but the fact is we haven't seen any test shots, packaging shots or anything, and with the movie coming in less than three months, getting reissues looks pretty bleak.

 

I was thinking "hey, I could wait five years, but if this movie comes in sequels, as well as triquels, it's going to be a looooooooong time before prices flatten out.

 

I really started coming back into collecting back in 03, and I kick myself everyday I'm on the boards for not starting back sooner. Oye.

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